Amidst Pahalgam Terror Attack Fallout, Modi 3.0 Navigates New Political Terrain
New Delhi, June 13, 2025 — The April 22 terror attack at Pahalgam — which claimed at least 26 lives, including helpless tourists and a brave local pony operator — has emerged as a watershed moment for Prime Minister Modi’s third term, reshaping his agenda both at home and abroad.
A Defining Incident
On that fateful spring day, militants ambushed a group of tourists in the serene Baisaran Valley. Witnesses recall a chilling selectivity: attackers interrogated visitors about religion before opening fire, reportedly sparing only after Muslims were separated from Hindus
The brutality flared political backlash as opposition leaders accused the government of security negligence, even alleging that intelligence warnings went unheeded .
From Crisis to Operation Sindoor
In the aftermath, the government swiftly responded with Operation Sindoor, a strategic military operation targeting terrorist networks across the border. Coordinated diplomatic efforts followed: India withdrew from the Indus Waters Treaty, canceled Pakistani visas, and launched a global outreach to rally support against cross-border terror.
Caste Census: Coincidence or Calculated Move?
Barely a week after the attack, on April 30, the Cabinet Committee on Political Affairs gave the green light for the inclusion of a caste enumeration in the next national census — a first since 1931.
Defenders say the census fulfills welfare objectives: accurate caste data can inform equitable policy and welfare allocation .
Critics from across the aisle — including AAP and Congress — argue the government timed the announcement to divert attention from the Pahalgam fallout, questioning the sincerity of the motive
Congress’s Rahul Gandhi, seizing the initiative, has called for a clear schedule and expanded reservations tied to the census findings
Meanwhile, BJP ally Ramdas Athawale has ambitious plans: boosting quotas to 75% for economically disadvantaged OBCs and SC/STs, pushing for caste-based representation even in Rajya Sabha and the Union cabinet
Political Realignments Ahead
The twin shocks—the Pahalgam attack and the caste census announcement—underscore a shifting political cadence as Modi 3.0 enters its second year. Faced with criticism over national security, Modi has embraced coalition politics: NDA leaders, including Bihar’s Nitish Kumar, came together in a high-powered conclave to endorse both the military action and caste enumeration
Among BJP’s core grassroots too, tensions simmer. Hardline RSS supporters expressed anger over the ceasefire, while also grappling with the optics of counting caste—challenging long-held notions of caste neutrality in Hindu nationalist discourse.
What Lies Ahead
Security Oversight: Opposition demands for accountability continue to grow. Questions linger about missed intelligence and whether enough was done to warn citizens — even as government agencies defend their actions .
Caste Census Logistics: With India’s decadal census delayed since 2021, the caste probe brings fresh urgency. The key debates: what social categories will be included, how data will be released, and when results will influence delimitation or welfare policies.
Political Strategy: As Bihar and other state elections approach, the BJP is juggling nationalist sentiment and social engineering. The caste census may shore up support among OBCs and marginalized communities, but it risks alienating upper-caste traditionalists.
In Summary
The Pahalgam attack forced Prime Minister Modi’s government to address immediate national security concerns. But its ripple effects have extended far beyond—triggering a geopolitical reversal with Operation Sindoor, catalysing long-suppressed caste data collection, and compelling the ruling coalition to balance ideological aims with electoral pragmatism.
Modi’s third term now hinges on navigating these intertwined pressures: delivering justice and security, keeping rising caste-conscious demands at bay, and maintaining unity within the NDA—all under intense political scrutiny.