Gold Prices in India Poised for Uptick; Mild Correction Possible

Surge in Demand Keeps Prices Elevated

India’s gold market is witnessing renewed strength this week as key drivers—festive demand, weakening dollar, and safe-haven sentiment—continue to support higher valuations. While analysts expect a mild pullback in the short term, the longer run momentum remains decidedly bullish.

Jewellery purchases for festivals and weddings are firming up ahead of Navratri and Diwali, providing a robust foundation for demand. This cultural buying pattern, combined with seasonal pre-orders, is keeping physical demand alive even at elevated price levels.

Global Factors Add Tailwinds

A softer U.S. dollar is making gold more attractive to investors globally, especially those holding non-dollar currencies. In addition, expectations of future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are drawing more capital toward non-yielding assets like bullion.

Amid economic uncertainties and inflationary pressures, gold’s status as a hedge is back in focus. Investors are turning to it to buffer against currency risk and market volatility. Capital is also flowing steadily into gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and futures markets, reinforcing the upward bias.

What Could Pull Prices Back?

Even as sentiment remains positive, analysts warn that short-term corrections are possible. Any hawkish surprise from central banks, increased profit booking in futures contracts, or a sharp rebound in the U.S. dollar could cool investor appetite.

On the domestic front, excessive import burdens could strain India’s current account over time. If gold prices run too far ahead, affordability concerns might curb retail demand, especially among smaller buyers.

Price Outlook & Key Levels

• In India, 24-carat gold is hovering near all-time highs, with 22-carat variants following closely behind.
• For MCX futures, upside projections point toward a range near ₹114,500 to ₹115,300 per 10 grams.
• Globally, the spot gold price could test the US$ 3,820 – 3,850 per ounce band.
• Silver is also tracking well, with upside potential toward US$ 45–46 per ounce, translating to elevated domestic prices.

In short: while minor pullbacks cannot be ruled out, the broad trajectory for gold appears to remain on the rise—backed by demand, monetary expectations, and macro uncertainty.